oneurope_live

We slept in today bigtime. And then we slept in some more. And then we said "oh gawd, our loyal reader is going to be expecting something from us". So, we're going to start repeating ourselves. Hurrah!

Several years ago, we watched all the semifinalists rehearsing at least once. And we had opinions on them. And we can't remember what they were. So, here is where we run down (in more than one way) the runners and riders for the semi-final!

FINLAND Jari Sillanpaa - Takes 2 To Tango. Was favoured by me at one time, but I'm not so sure now. It's a good opener to the contest, Jari sings it well and he's a more than competent opener. He's not going to win the semi-final nor come last, and should be somewhere on the fringes. I reckon he's a 60% chance to qualify.

BELARUS Alexandra and Konstantin - My Galileo. It's a profound - if profoundly odd - lyric, sung in a strange accent, and yet it has a certain charm to it. I can't quite see it making the cut considering that there are better songs in there. Perhaps a 30% chance.

SWITZERLAND Piero Esteriore and the Music Stars - Celebrate! It's shockingly bad. Piero reminds me in many ways of Chris Cromby, in that he annoys me. It really shouldn't qualify, but I don't quite trust our disloyal non-reader to realise just how bad it is. It has a chance of falling flat on Saturday instead - mind you, if it qualifies I'll fear it. 25% at best.

LATVIA Fomins and Kleins - Dziesma Par Laimi (A Song About Happiness). I seem to recall saying that they rock extremely hard, and that's because they do. They really deserve to qualify on what we've seen so far, and I hope they do. I'd give them a 70% likelihood if they can sell it how they have so far.

ISRAEL David D'Or - To Believe. All the vocal gymnastics and la-la-la ing don't really cover up the fact that this is a dull and rather weak song, both musically and lyrically. If anything, they accentuate it. I'd be surprised to see him in the main contest. Perhaps 20%.

ANDORRA Marta Roure - Jugarem A Estimar-Nos (We'll Be Playing At Loving Each Other). The first song to have really come out of the pack in rehearsals for me, I think it's really sold nicely in a simple slightly retro fashion - enough to make the likes of me go O-ho! without making the likes of you go "Oh gawd...". You'll like it, so will Europe and it has a good chance of making it. 65% or thereabouts.

PORTUGAL Sofia - Foi Magia (Like Magic). Sorry, no. Not a hope in hell. It's a woman singing Foi Magia at you 7000 times. It's not enough. 5% chance to qualify, if the wrong telephone numbers are put out.

MALTA Julie and Ludwig - On Again... Off Again. When I arrived in Istanbul, I had a hunch that this was going to win the whole contest. I no longer have that hunch, it didn't really leap out at me in rehearsals. Might well qualify by default, but it's not a sure thing by any stretch. 60%

MONACO Maryon - Notre Planete (Our Planet). Not a bad song, but one that gets a bit lost in the choreography and arrangement. I can't really see this one getting through, and I'd call it no better than a 35% chance.

GREECE Sakis Rouvas - Shake It. There's something about this song that some people have spotted and we just plain haven't. Hype alone might be enough to carry it through to the final, but I can't see why it's going to do better than Stelios Konstantas for Cyprus last year. It's a flat pack Eurovision song. Probably a 70% chance to qualify, but William Hill offers odds of 8/1 for it to fail to qualify and I've put £2.50 on.

UKRAINE Ruslana - Wild Dances. Umm, what do you expect me to say? She's astonishing, and if she doesn't qualify there will be questions asked, like "What?", "What?", and "No, seriously though, who really qualified?". 98% chance to qualify because I do occasionally make mistakes.

LITHUANIA Linas and Simona - What's Happened To Your Love? Can't really call this one. I think the choreography's risible and the song isn't that strong, but it has something to it all the same. I think this is the one where I am going to bottle out and call it a 50% chance, as I honestly can't tell.

ALBANIA Anjeza Shahini - The Image Of You. I think this works and is sung strongly, but I have a few lingering doubts about it. Another one that's going to be somewhere in the middle. 55% to qualify.

CYPRUS Lisa Andreas - Stronger Every Minute. Oh gawd, she scares me so much. I've seen nothing to convince me that she will nail the performance when it matters, and if she doesn't she's going down like the Titanic. 40% to qualify, but if she does qualify it'll be in the top 4.

(FYR) MACEDONIA - Tose Proeski - Life. I think this guy's going to do really well - he's one of the best two or three singers in the semi-final, and has a song to match. Not a major shock if he doesn't make it, but certainly a minor shock. 75% at least to be there on Saturday.

SLOVENIA - Platin - Stay Forever. Certainly designed to attract the floating viewer, getting married on Thursday, has all the nice gimmicks that will help it along, and really ought to be in there somewhere. 60% or near offer.

ESTONIA Neiokoso with wiggly things over the last two Os - Tii. The real wild card of the whole contest. I haven't a clue where this is going to finish. I think it might have enough about it to get in there somewhere, but I'm not sure and I reckon it's a 55%.

CROATIA Ivan Mikulic - You Are The Only One. Really can't see it. Really, really can't see it. The only faint hope it might have is that if there's a standard male ballad vote to be mopped up, he's really got it sewn up in the semi, in which case he'll get humiliated on an even bigger stage. 30% chance of qualifying.

DENMARK Tomas Thordarson - Shame On You. I don't know what to say about Tomas Thordarson, except that he worries me in many, many ways. Near the top of betting odds, but not very near the top of my betting odds. 40% chance to qualify if a collective madness descends on the peoples of Europe.

SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Zeljko Joksimovic - Lane Moje (Oh My Fawn). Almost certain to qualify. It's a beautiful song, performed perfectly and looking exactly how it needs to look. Just can't imagine this outside the top 10. 85% or more to get through.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA Deen - In The Disco. I don't know what to say about Deen without insulting him. So I shall restrict myself to saying that I think he probably will qualify and I'll make him a 60% chance.

NETHERLANDS Re-Union - Without You. No, not really. Not totally without a chance... just nearly. Usually when I think a song is going to get completely overlooked, it very nearly wins. Still, 40% at best.

Ok folks, now you can work out how many countries I think will be amongst the ten qualifiers. If it's ten it'll be a minor miracle!